The year 2024 marked a significant escalation in terrorist activity targeting Iran, with a sharp rise in attacks and evolving patterns of violence. According to the latest Iran Annual Terrorism Report, published by Habilian Association, Iran faced over a 57% increase in terrorist operations compared to 2023, underscoring persistent security challenges despite the country’s overall reputation as relatively secure.
In 2024, 52 terrorist operations were recorded nationwide—up from 33 the previous year. This surge, primarily concentrated in Iran’s southeastern province of Sistan and Baluchestan, represents an 80% increase in attacks in that region alone. The province remains the epicenter of terrorism in Iran, accounting for nearly 70% of all attacks nationwide.
A key driver behind this spike is the intensified activity of the Takfiri group Jaish al-Adl. In 2024, Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility for 27 attacks—more than triple their operations in 2023. Including likely attributions of attacks by unidentified perpetrators, the group’s total operations could rise to 35, signaling enhanced operational capabilities and possibly foreign support.
Despite the rise in attacks, the number of fatalities reported in 2024 fell to 100 from 161 in 2023. This decline is primarily attributed to the absence of a catastrophic incident akin to the 2023 Kerman bombing, which alone resulted in 98 deaths—mostly civilians—in an ISIS-led suicide attack. Excluding this exceptional event, the actual death toll for 2024 shows an increase, aligning with the growing frequency of attacks.
Unlike the Kerman incident, which disproportionately affected civilians, the majority of victims in 2024 were security and military personnel. Approximately 89% of fatalities were members of Iran’s security forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), police, Basij volunteer forces, and conscripts. Notably, fatalities among Basij volunteers tripled, and deaths of conscripts more than doubled compared to the previous year, reflecting a more aggressive targeting of state security apparatuses by terrorist groups.
The report highlights a relative calm in Iran’s western and northwestern regions, attributed to successful military operations and a security agreement with Baghdad, which curtailed anti-Iranian Kurdish terrorist activity.
Conversely, terrorist threats outside Iran expanded, with attacks increasing from 6 in 2023 to 10 in 2024, including incidents in Syria and Lebanon. This suggests a widening regional dimension to the threat landscape, with foreign involvement becoming more pronounced. Israel, in particular, increased its operations, employing new tactics such as drone strikes, while the United States was implicated in one attack during the year.
The terrorist landscape in Iran is undergoing significant changes, marked by an evolution in tactics with the adoption of Inghimasi-style raids and drone strikes, indicating more sophisticated and deadly operations. At the same time, there has been a notable decline in suicide bombings, with only one such incident recorded in 2024, reflecting a strategic shift by terrorist groups away from mass-casualty attacks targeting civilians. Additionally, the activity of Kurdish groups has continued to decrease, with only a single attack by unknown perpetrators reported in 2024.
Jaish al-Adl’s rise as the dominant terrorist actor, alongside increased Israeli operations, underscores the complex and multifaceted nature of the threat. The group’s focus on security forces aims to undermine Iran’s internal stability, leveraging regional instability and possible foreign backing.
The report warns that without decisive countermeasures, the behavioral patterns of terrorist groups—especially Jaish al-Adl—are unlikely to change. Additionally, heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly involving the Zionist regime, could lead to increased sabotage and security threats. The potential use of transnational groups like ISIS-Khorasan by external actors remains a concern, especially as these groups employ advanced tools such as AI for recruitment and propaganda.
Iran’s 2024 terrorism report paints a sobering picture of an increasingly complex security environment, driven largely by localized insurgencies in vulnerable border provinces and evolving regional dynamics. The disproportionate targeting of Iran’s security personnel signals a shift toward weakening the state’s control apparatus. Meanwhile, the relative decline in civilian casualties reflects a more calculated and focused approach by terrorist groups.
Addressing these challenges requires robust counterterrorism strategies, strengthened regional cooperation, and comprehensive socio-political measures to mitigate the root causes of extremism, particularly in border provinces like Sistan and Baluchestan. The insights from this report serve as a crucial guide for policymakers to adapt and respond to a rapidly changing threat landscape in 2025 and beyond.