Analysis estimates death toll by end of June was 64,260, with 59% being women, children and people over 65.
Research published in the Lancet medical journal estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of war was about 40% higher than numbers recorded by the Palestinian territory’s health ministry.
The peer-reviewed statistical analysis was conducted by academics at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Yale University and other institutions, using a statistical method called capture-recapture analysis.
The researchers sought to assess the death toll from Israel’s air and ground campaign in Gaza between October 2023 and the end of June 2024, estimating 64,260 deaths due to traumatic injury during this period. The study said 59.1% were women, children and people over the age of 65.
Up to 30 June last year, the health ministry in Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war, which began on 7 October 2023 after the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel in which 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 taken hostages.
According to Palestinian health officials, a total of more than 46,000 people have been killed in the Gaza war, from a prewar population of about 2.3 million.
It has not been possible for international media to independently verify the death toll in Gaza as Israel does not allow foreign journalists into the territory.
The Lancet study said the Palestinian health ministry’s capacity for maintaining electronic death records had previously proven reliable, but deteriorated under Israel’s military campaign, which has included raids on hospitals and other healthcare facilities and disruptions to digital communications.
The study used death toll data from the health ministry, an online survey launched by the ministry for Palestinians to report relatives’ deaths, and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza up to 30 June 2024.
The study’s best estimate was 64,260 dead, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41%. The estimate represented 2.9% of Gaza’s prewar population, “or approximately one in 35 inhabitants”, the study said.
The figure is only for deaths from traumatic injuries and does not include deaths from a lack of healthcare or food, or the thousands believed to be buried under rubble.
The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) estimates that, on top of the official death toll from the health ministry, another 11,000 Palestinians are missing and presumed dead.
The researchers scoured the three lists, searching for duplicates. “We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital,” said Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and the lead author of the study.
“Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed,” Jamaluddine told Agence France-Presse.